WebThe Good Judgment Project ( GJP) är ett projekt som "utnyttjar publikens visdom för att förutsäga världshändelser".Det skapades tillsammans av Philip E. Tetlock (författare till Superforecasting och Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?), Beslutsforskare Barbara Mellers och Don Moore, alla professorer vid University of … WebOn hedgehogs, Tetlock says that hedgehogs provide a valuable service by doing the deep thinking necessary to build detailed causal models and raise interesting questions; these models and questions can then be slurped up by foxy superforecasters, evaluated, and aggregated to make good predictions. 46 The superforecaster Bill Flack is quoted in …
Superforecasting – How To Read The Future - Forbes
Web11 apr 2024 · As the project leader, Philip Tetlock, wrote in his book Super-forecasting: “A brilliant puzzle-solver may have the raw material for forecasting, but if he doesn’t also have an appetite for ... Web20 gen 2015 · But the work of Philip Tetlock and his team at the Good Judgment Project – funded by the US government's Intelligence Advanced Research Project (Iarpa) – points … tracey cook georgia
See the future sooner with Superforecasting Good Judgment
Web2015 ( Crown Publishers) Pages. 340. ISBN. 9780804136693. LC Class. HB3730 .T47X 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. … Web29 set 2015 · Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of … WebThe Good Judgment Project—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. tracey cooke church